Economic Growth Forecasting in Europe and Central Asia in 2011/2012

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development estimates for overall growth in 2010 remains at around 4.2 per cent for the region, with upward revisions in most countries but downward revisions in Russia, Slovenia, Mongolia, and Turkmenistan. The recovery has been increasingly private sector driven as fiscal consolidation was implemented in many countries in the region and the fiscal stimulus measures of 2009, where they had been possible, where not renewed.

 Economic growth in Azerbaijan has slowed down as oil and gas production stabilised, but the no oil sector recovered faster than expected. The pace of structural reforms accelerated somewhat as the authorities negotiate the WTO accession. The diversification of the economy remains important as risks associated with high oil dependence became apparent during the crisis, when oil prices declined. FDI inflows into the non-oil sector remain low. Immediate macroeconomic risks are mitigated by a very strong fiscal position (The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD, 2011, Report is attached). Meanwhile World Bank predicts 3.5% growth in Azerbaijani GDP in 2011 and 3.9% growth in 2012. The statement is contained in the WB report on Global Economic Prospects 2011, posted on the bank’s website.

 

As reported earlier, WB predicted the GDP growth of Azerbaijan on the level of 3.9% a year for 2011-2012 Under the report, the GDP growth rates of Azerbaijan in 2011-2012 will be higher than the overall world growth in GDP in 2011-2012. Meanwhile, in the indicated period the GDP growth rates in Azerbaijan will be a little bit lower than in the countries of Europe and Central Asia. According to the bank, the GDP growth will be on the level of 4% in 2011 and by 4.2% in 2012. By the WB forecasts, Azerbaijan’s nominal GDP will make up $43,700,000,000 in 2011 and $44.1bn in 2012. Meanwhile, the GDP per capita growth is predicted to be 2.5% this year and 2.9% next year.